An air of uncertainty looms large after the Rose Garden nomination of Barrett Saturday evening. What is in the pipeline for the next 38 days is a matter of speculation.
While the Republicans are making best possible efforts for the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett through the Senate, Democrats are on toes to block her till the Election Day. The entire course of American politics is hinged upon the Republican’s plot, Democrat’s chances against it and above all, the due process to be followed.
What is in the pipeline?
The confirmation of process will be initiated by a 22 member Judiciary Committee, headed by South Carolina Republican senator, Lindsay Graham. Graham is believed to be a top aide of Trump.
The committee will start its four days long hearing from October 12. This is unusual as the hearing normally takes a longer time. A detailed questionnaire will be floated to Trump’s nominee. After the hearing, the committee will vote to decide if the nomination is to be recommended to full Senate.
The full Senate hearing will be held on October 22. The full Senate will vote to decide whether Amy Coney Barrett will get confirmation before the US Presidential election.
During the entire process, Amy Coney Barrett will hold back-channel negotiation with Senators. She will meet them to muster support for herself.
Do Republicans have enough votes to get confirmation?
The Senate is split between Republicans and Democrats at 53 to 47 seats. To get a vote against Amy Coney Barrett, Democrats will have to break four Republican votes.
Two Republicans have openly opposed against the rush to get confirmation before the US Presidential election.
This certainly will not be an easy task as most of the Republicans have shown allegiance on party lines. There is a personal reason also for them to not oppose confirmation before Election Day. If Amy Coney Barrett replaces justice Ginsburg, conservative votes for each Republican candidate will be consolidated.
The Senate composition gives Trump an edge over Biden. The only thing he is required to do is to defend his party votes.
Are Democrats left with an option to filibuster?
House Speaker and California Democrat, Nancy Pelosi has asserted that her party has arrows in their quiver to stop Republicans from rushing to confirmation before the US Presidential election.
Is the filibuster one among those arrows? No, Republicans have themselves shut this door in 2017 during the nomination process of Justice Neil M. Gorsuch. The filibuster is an attempt to slow down or impede executive branch nominations. The Senate allows its members to endlessly speak on any issue, slowing down the process of nominations rushed by majority Party. The Senator could only be stopped through cloture.
Initially, there was a 60-vote rule to cloture any debate. But the Democrats in 2013 and then, Republicans in 2017 ended the rule. Now, cloture requires a simple majority of Senators present in the House.
In present circumstances, the majority leader Mitch McConnell can easily thwart any filibuster attempt by Democrats.
What if Trump loses White House and Senate before the confirmation?
Republicans will still have the chance to confirm Justice Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court. Biden will take charge as President in January. White House and Senate will also begin their new session in January.
What will happen between the Election results and the new session? It is a lame-duck session. Republicans will convene after the Election Day to complete left out businesses. They can still use this time to pass confirmation for Justice Amy Coney Barrett.
Democrats can not do much to stop Justice Amy Coney Barret from assuming office. They can just delay the process. If they somehow put a halt to confirmation process before the US Presidential election, it will strengthen their chances to win.
Democrats can increase the number of Judges in Supreme Court to dilute the conservative majority in the court.
