On August 20, Ecuadorians will go to the polls to hold early presidential and legislative elections, which were called after the country’s president, Guillermo Lasso, decreed cross death and dissolved the National Assembly last May.
Uncertainty reigns in the country. In order for a candidate to win in the first round, in accordance with the Organic Law on Electoral and Political Organizations or the Democracy Code, they need to obtain at least 40% of the valid votes and a difference greater than 10 percentage points over second place; If this is not achieved, a ballot will be held with the two most voted, which is scheduled for October 15.
It is unknown how the board was left after the presidential debate held last Sunday, August 13, which could have served for the undecided to take their side.
Many analysts believe that the person who came out stronger in that event was Jan Topic, of the alliance For a Country without Fear, which is made up of the Christian Social Party (PSC), the Patriotic Society and the Democratic Center. He is an economist who defines himself as an expert in international security and claims to have fought in Ukraine, Syria and Africa.
That is the perception of political analyst Mauro Andino, who believes that Topic, 40, was “the most prominent” in the debate and knew how to “capitalize” on the issue of security, since currently Violence and insecurity are the main concerns for Ecuadorians and have marked the electoral agenda.
“He is monothematic,” Andino insisted, in an analysis he did in the Ingobernables EC digital space, referring to the fact that Topic was repetitive throughout the debate with the “firm hand” strategy to deal with violence.
The analyst pointed out that the current moment in the country, after the assassination of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio and the murder of the mayor of Manta, Agustin Intriago, at the end of July, “has enough to feed this discourse.” “People are in a state of terror, of fear and what he wants is precisely a strong hand, a firm and clear hand, Topic embodies this, Topic upholds this discourse”, he emphasized.
The sociologist and also political analyst Agustin Burbano expressed the same line, who, in an interview with Radio Pichincha, pointed out that Topic “left the image of handling numbers, setting goals and, furthermore, having the willpower to carry out the proposed changes”.
Regarding a hypothetical promotion of Topic, this Wednesday, in an interview with teleramaFormer President Rafael Correa said: “When an environment of terror is generated, those who sell us solutions for terror, with terror you don’t think, are the ones who go up, the mercenaries, the ones who say that being snipers is knowing security “.
“We already did it”
Regarding Luisa Gonzalez, a 45-year-old lawyer and champion of the Revolucion Ciudadana (RC) movement, analysts agree that she managed to position the phrase “we already did it” in the debate, referring to the policies applied during the Correa administration (2007 -2017), which gave Ecuador a good position in various matters, something that the candidate promises they will do again.
However, for Burbano, “the problem is that due to the format of the debate, first, and the way in which Luisa developed it, secondly, He did not explain what it is that they already did“. He pointed out that people were waiting for the proposals and “does not have to know specifically what it is and how it was done.”
“In the way in which this discursive matrix of the past ‘we already did it’ is being carried out, I think it is not enough,” he said.
Andean agrees. “If I expected more in the sense of also speaking in terms of the future, of tomorrow, I think it was too anchored in the past.”
“Many people said that Luisa did badly, I don’t believe it. I think Luisa spoke for her electoral marketLuisa spoke of a correista to the correistas, to reconsolidate their vote, which is a prudent strategy,” said Andrea Yepez, a specialist in political strategy and digital communication, in conversation with Ingobernables EC, where she added that the only female candidate “was not allowed to develop some ideas properly.
For Burbano, who lost the debate was Otto Sonnenholzner, 40 years old. He was Vice President of Ecuador between December 2018 and July 2020, during the Presidency of Lenin Moreno, and is supported for these elections by the Actuemos alliance, made up of the United Society More Action (SUMA) and Avanza parties.
“I think Otto Sonnenholzner wasted the debate, I think he is the one who lost the debate the most […] It is a burden to have been part of the Moreno government, he is ashamed to have been part of the Moreno government,” he emphasized.
As for Yaku Perez, 54, who also contested in the 2021 elections and is presenting himself on this occasion sponsored by the Claro que se Puede alliance, Burbano believes that he did not do well in the debate.
“I think he allowed himself to be won by more demagogic electoral strategies or tactics”pointed out about this candidate for the Presidency.
For analysts, who surprised Sunday night in the debate was Daniel Noboa. He is the candidate of the National Democratic Action (ADN) alliance, made up of the People, Equality and Democracy movements (PID, of Arturo Moreno, cousin of former President Moreno) and Mover, what was formerly Alianza PAIS.
Burbano believes that this 35-year-old candidate, who was an assemblyman until the dissolution of the National Assembly last May, is taking advantage of these elections to be known and position his image. “Within that I think he’s doing relatively well,” he said.
For his part, Yepez said that Noboa “He had a style that was very profitableprobably for this reason the networks began to talk about him”, referring to the fact that he showed “very complete information” and “with technical data”, something that, according to her, was what people expected.
Noboa is the son of the businessman and former candidate for the Presidency on six occasions Alvaro Noboa – who had also announced on networks that he would present himself on this occasion, but the video was later deleted and his candidacy never materialized.
Faced with all this panorama, it will be the Ecuadorians who have the last word at the polls next Sunday.
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