Specialists consider that yield drops will have an impact on GDP.
The historic drought that Argentina is going through, which has had a negative impact on the marketing of soybeans and corn, could affect the national economy.
A recent report from the state National Institute of Agricultural Technology (INTA) revealed that the area affected by the climatic phenomenon increased by more than one million hectares.
In this regard, economists and farmers predict that 2023 will be “disastrous” both for soybeans, which are going through their worst year in the last two decades, and for corn, which had a harvest of 25 million tons between 2015-2016, which implied a decrease of 3.5 million tonscompared to the previous season.
The red numbers of soybeans
According to the estimates of the Rosario Stock Exchange, this will be the worst grain trade of the last two decades.
Economists emphasize that it is necessary to refer to the 2001-2002 agricultural campaign, when the social and economic outbreak occurred, to have such meager values in legume transactions.
In the 2022-2023 season, 4.8 million tons of grain have been sold, which represents 18% of the production expected by the agricultural sector.
The Rosario Stock Exchange considers that, while in 2021-2022 the production of 42.2 million tons, in 2022-2023 it will be 27 million.
The specialists point out that the producers have uncertainty because around 76% of the current production was negotiated with a price to be fixed, that is, the commitment between the buyer and seller was agreed with a term to seal the real value of payment.
An analyst at the Rosario Stock Exchange, Javier Treboux, told RT that a 50% cut was made on what was estimated to be produced, “which will generate a estimated loss around 15,000 million dollars for the production sector and for the national economy”.
Treboux asserted that this drop will cause a “huge impact“Because in addition to affecting the sector, it will have effects on the chain and all the links of activities such as transport, commerce and brokerage.
“We are already talking about an impact in terms of 3 points of GDP“, he claimed.
What will happen to the corn?
The drought has also had an impact on the corn crop. Until February 15, some 8.5% million tons were sold, which means a little more than half of what had been sold a year ago, which corresponded to 19 tons.
This volume has been the lowest since the 2015-2016 period.
On the other hand, according to the Rosario Stock Exchange, production for the 2022-2023 campaign is estimated at 35 million tons, which implies a decrease of 16 million tons compared to 2021-2022.
Until now, operations are virtually halted due to the possibility of new interventions by authorities.
The president of the Limited Agricultural Intercooperative Confederation (Coninagro), Elbio Laucirica, expressed the concern of that sector about the financial resources that will be available to deal with the drought.
In the same way, he referred to the need for inputs and the difficulty of importing them due to the lack of dollars. “How are we going to deal with the new campaign?” she wondered.
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Source: RT
