Uncertainty and distrust reign in Guatemala ahead of the second round

“Guatemala deserves to flourish.” “We want free elections.” These are some of the messages that could be read on the banners displayed in the capital on July 24, 2023, one of the many days of protest against the intervention of the Prosecutor’s Office in the electoral process.

These have been the most turbulent elections in the country since the return to democracy in 1986still within the Internal Armed Conflict (1960-1996).

How did you get here? The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) took two weeks to endorse the results of the first round. On the same day, July 12, The Prosecutor’s Office ordered the suspension of Bernardo Arevalo’s party, which qualified for the elections in second place. The Organization of American States (OAS), the United States, the European Union and various organizations warned of an attack on democracy in the Central American country.

The results of the first electoral round, on June 25, surprised the country: Movimiento Semilla hardly appeared in the polls before the first round. The party of Bernardo Arevalo and Karin Herrera as vice president was founded in 2015 and has focused its campaign around the fight against corruption.

2015 marked the history of Guatemala as the year of the largest peaceful protests against corruption and impunity in the country, which led to the removal of President Otto Perez Molina, accused of illicit association and customs fraud. However, the governments that followed have been marked by a breakdown of democratic institutions and persecution of those who had previously denounced cases of corruption.

Thus, the real winner of the first round was the null vote, with 17.4% of the votes. A result that reflects the loss of confidence of the Guatemalan population in their representatives. In a survey published on August 2 by the Fundacion Libertad y Desarrollo and Cid Gallup, 73% of those surveyed “believe that Guatemalan democracy is threatened and in danger.”

For a part of the population, the victory of Bernardo Arevalo, alien to the political class aligned with the ruling party and son of the first democratically elected president in the country after the 1944 Revolution, brought a wave of hope. For another part of the country, the candidate Sandra Torres, who reaches the second round for the third time, represents the commitment to the conservative values ​​of Guatemala, particularly regarding abortion and equal marriage.

In San Juan Sacatepequez, a municipality in the department of Guatemala, a resident, Lazaro Borror, said he attended Torres’ rally to find out who to vote for, but that he did not fully believe in any of the candidates. “They only do something for us in the first few months, then they forget us,” he shared.

Looking ahead to the elections on Sunday, August 20, the Guatemalan population and the international community fear new interference in the electoral process. According to the same survey, 56% of the surveyed population is willing to protest if the second round is canceled and 67% oppose the persecution against the Seed Movement.

“The people of Guatemala are vigilant and we are going to demand compliance with the laws, the Constitution and the result at the polls,” Allan Ramirez, one of the protesters, told the local press.

A dangerous electoral chaos

After knowing the results of the first round, nine of the more than 20 presidential pairs denounced “irregularities.” The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) did not directly endorse the results. On July 1, the Constitutional Court ordered a recount of the votes, a decision deemed “arbitrary” by human rights organizations.

Two weeks later, on July 12, considering the recount of the votes, the TSE approved the results and called the second round. In parallel, the Prosecutor’s Office ordered the suspension of Bernardo Arevalo’s party, due to alleged ghost signatures among the registered members of the party.

This is a systematic attack on the electoral process

However, in election season, The TSE is the only public institution with the power to decide on the parties in contention. The Constitutional Court then blocked the order of the Prosecutor’s Office, an organization that had already twice raided the headquarters of the TSE and Movimiento Semilla.

“We have observed actions where the attack is not only against our party. We continue to be denied the right to defense, effective judicial protection, we have observed how the attack on the TSE, data entry workers and volunteers who participated in the first vote has increased. In other words, this is a systematic attack against the electoral process,” said Juan Gerardo Guerrero, a lawyer for Movimiento Semilla.

The protests against the persecution of Semilla have spread throughout the national territory, even in rural areas where the majority of the population is Mayan.

August 7 was the date set for the presidential debate, organized by the Guatemalan Managers Association. Despite having been informed two months in advance, Sandra Torres declined to attend and simultaneously presented her government plan. On Monday August 14, in a forum on ‘Channel 7’, aligned with the ruling party, the two candidates finally faced each other. However, according to reports from the ‘Community Press’, there were mainly accusations against the Seed Movement for the alleged ghost signatures.

Attorney General Consuelo Porras and the head of the Special Prosecutor’s Office against Impunity, Rafael Curruchiche, have been sanctioned by the United States for their involvement in corruption cases.

According to analysts interviewed by AFP, the arrival of Bernardo Arevalo to power is seen as a risk to the interests of the country’s powerful sectors.

Who are the candidates?

Sandra Torres, former first lady, is the head of the National Union of Hope party. Traditionally the party represented the political line furthest to the left of the country, however, in these elections, its proposals show a turn to the right.

He runs alongside Romeo Guerra as vice president, an evangelical pastor who strongly defends opposition to abortion and equal marriage at political rallies. “I want to run this country fearing God,” said Sandra Torres.

Faced with the high crime rate in the country, the candidate insisted that the only way out is the model of Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele. In Guatemala, although in less concentration than in El Salvador, the ’18’ and ‘Salvatrucha’ gangs also operate.

In her campaign, she recalls the social policies she directed as first lady, particularly the solidarity bag: a bag with the basic food basket for the most disadvantaged families in the country.

his opponent, Bernardo ArevaloHe is an academic and writer. He grew up in Uruguay after the exile of his father, Juan Jose Arevalo, caused by the coup that ousted Jacobo Arbenz in 1954. Karin Herrera, vice-presidential candidate, is a biological chemist.

The center of his campaign has been lto fight against corruption, alleging that the country does have sufficient resources to prevent extreme poverty. Bernardo Arevalo has insisted on the rights of teachers and the need to break the “monopoly” of the pharmaceutical company in the country, to facilitate access to medicines.

Regarding abortion, he maintains that it is not his intention to legalize it, but he has not ruled on equal marriage. One of the party’s mottos is that his government will not allow any kind of discrimination.

According to local media reports, part of the population fears that even after the second round, if Movimiento Semilla wins, they will be prevented from ascending to government on January 14, 2024.

“It is no secret that we are very concerned,” declared Luis Almagro, OAS Secretary General. After visiting Guatemala between August 1 and 4, he described the political crisis in the country and concluded that the OAS observation mission would remain in the territory until January next year.

With AFP, EFE, AP, Reuters and local media