The picture looks from bad to worse for the opposition. Last June the alliance ‘goes to Mexico‘, made up of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), the National Action Party (PAN) and the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), lost four of the six governorships in dispute against the ruling party.
Due to their inability to defeat the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) party and its allies, they have insisted, without success, on incorporating a fourth party into their electoral platform. Until now, however, the leaders of the Movimiento Ciudadano party have repeatedly rejected the invitation.
As if the above were not bleak enough, facing a key local election next year, that of the State of Mexico, the three parties of the old regime have hinted that, far from having a joint strategy, the cracks inside the block are getting bigger.
In the opinion of several analysts, if the ruling party wins the election of the State of Mexico, the PRI would suffer its ‘final blow’, since it would lose the entity that is its main bastion.
In the opinion of several analysts, if the ruling party wins the election of the State of Mexico, the PRI would suffer its ‘final blow’, since it would lose the entity that is its main bastion.
With this defeat in tow, the opposition could hardly come back in 2024, with which the ruling party and its allies would have a “free path” to remain in the National Palace.
A surprise announcement (no head or tail)
Instead of dedicating himself fully to building a common candidacy, at the beginning of August the national leader of the BREAD He was ahead of his peers from the PRI and the PRD and He announced the name of who will be his flag bearer: Enrique Vargas del Villar.
According to several local media, the PAN’s maneuver can be interpreted as a “distance from the PRI”, a political organization that, until now, has proved incapable of getting ahead of the scandals of its national leader, Alejandro Moreno Cárdenas.
The leader of the tricolor has been exhibited committing alleged acts of corruption, bribery and even violence against the pressthrough audios that have been released by the Governor of Campeche, Layda Sansores.
The maneuver of the PAN in the face of an election that is decisive is striking: instead of summoning the other two parties to join forces, it bets on going alone.
And it is that the State of Mexico is not just any election. It is a state of the Republic that has been governed by the Institutional Revolutionary for more than ninety years.
It is the state with the largest nominal list: more than 12,200,000 people with voting credentials. In short, the parties that manage to become the Government of the State of Mexico will pay their way to the federal elections of 2024.
Today is a bastion of the PRI under the control of a powerful groupvery close to former president Carlos Salinas de Gortari (whom López Obrador considers his main adversary): the Atlacomulco Group.
In the face of highly relevant elections, the announcement made by Marko Cortés, national president of the PAN, in addition to being surprising, has no head or tail, since it undermines the unity of the opposition parties.
And it is that, wherever you look at it, the blue and white party has no chance of winning this election without an alliance. Numbers are not enough. National Action is not a predominant party in the entity.
For the PRI, the panorama is not very encouraging either. Although this party is much stronger in the state when compared to the PAN, its level of approval has gone down with Alfredo del Mazo at the head of the Government.
The opposition parties have regressed in the demarcations with the largest population, which represent almost 50% of the Mexican votes. In 2021, Morena beat the PRI almost two to one in the 10 municipalities with the largest number of voters.
It must be remembered that, four years ago, the Morena candidate, Delfina Gómez, and who will participate again next year, was less than 170,000 votes short of defeating the tricolor (2.8% of the electoral roll).
All opposition parties have been losing ground from 2018 to date. In 2021, when the local Congress and the City Councils were renewed, the PRI came out weakened, while the PAN and the PRD suffered tremendous setbacks.
It should be noted that the opposition parties have regressed in the demarcations with the largest population, which represent almost 50% of the Mexican votes. In 2021, Morena beat the PRI almost two to one in the 10 municipalities with the largest number of voters.
Will the PRI be defeated in its main stronghold?
Some local media hypothesize that the drop in Del Mazo’s approval rating led the leaders of the Atlacomulco Group to look for a candidate outside their party’s ranks.
The version has been handled that the PAN ended up negotiating with the Atlacomulco Group the designation of Vargas del Villar as a candidate for governor of the State of Mexico by the opposition.
It just so happens a few weeks ago the PAN held a meeting with Enrique Peña Nieto in Madrid (Spain)city where the former president currently resides.
The version has been handled that the PAN ended up negotiating with the Atlacomulco Group the designation of Vargas del Villar as a candidate for governor of the State of Mexico by the opposition.
Although Vargas del Villar assures that the meeting “was not planned”, but rather a “coincidence”, it should be noted that it took place days before the national leader PAN “unveiled” him as a candidate.
Peña Nieto, who in addition to being part of the Atlacomulco Group, governed the State of Mexico between 2005 and 2011, would have given his “approval” to the candidacy of Vargas del Villar who, although a PAN member, maintains a “good relationship” with the former president .
However, contrary to this hypothesis, it is paradoxical that Peña Nieto has given his support to a candidate who, if supported solely by the PAN, has no chance of winning victory in 2023.
According to another perspective of analysis, former President Peña Nieto would have “negotiated” the delivery of the Government of the State of Mexico to the ruling party and its allies. That is, his support for the PAN candidacy means giving up the election as lost.
And it is that, in the year 2018, analysts recall, Peña Nieto did little to prevent López Obrador from winning theto presidential election. But, in exchange for what would the former president hand over the main bastion of the PRI?
According to those who defend this hypothesis, Peña Nieto would do so to “guarantee impunity” in the face of the three investigation files that the Attorney General’s Office has open for him: electoral crimes, money laundering and illicit enrichment.
It must be remembered that his own Francisco Labastida Ochoa former national president of the PRI, and who was a presidential candidate in 2000, declared in June of this year that Peña Nieto had “helped” López Obrador win in 2018in exchange for “impunity” during his six-year term.
The election of the State of Mexico is so relevant that, if Delfina Gómez wins it in 2023, the territorial power of the Institutional Revolutionary would be undermined to the point of placing it at the most critical point in its history.
And not only that. The defeat of the opposition would “clear the way” for the ruling party and its allies in the face of the presidential succession, which would increase their chances of extending the government of the so-called “Fourth Transformation” until at least 2030.
Ariel Noyola Rodriguez
@noyola_ar
Source: RT
